Election report – latest opinion poll

Picture credit: Wikipedia
Picture credit: Wikipedia

The Netherlands goes into polls on 22 November to elect the new House of Representatives (Tweede kamer). The poll by Peilingwijzer, is a combination of available exit polls, and it’s not a poll by itself.

The Peilingwijzer is a scientific research project created by political scientist Tom Louwerse, associate professor at the Institute of Political Science at Leiden University. The underlying idea is based on the work of, among others, Simon Jackman. The Poll Guide is created by combining the published results of polls by I&O Research and Ipsos / EenVandaag.

According to Peilingwijzer, VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) and Omzigt’s NSC (New Social Contract) run neck and neck in the race to occupy the ‘blue seats’. Both parties get 16-18 % of the votes. The left party coalition PvdA-GL (Labour Party and Green Left) is closing the gap with 14-16 % of the vote share. Roughly, the above three factions share about fifty percent of the votes.

Interestingly,  pro-Nexit* and anti-immigration PVV (Party for Freedom) follows next with 10 to 12 percent. The Farmers Party BBB with 7 to 9 percent of the predicted vote share, is five on the list. The parties in the outgoing government, such as progressive D66 (Democratic 66) and CDA (Christian democratic party), have difficult scenarios to face. Even though the D66 rose with a high voter turnout in the last election, they are predicted to poll only a 5% vote share. CDA prospects have dwindled further and now account for 2 to 3 % of votes in the opinion polls along with pan European party VOLT and CU (Christian Union).

*Nexit- A portmanteau word for the Netherlands exiting the European Union.

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