ASML is once again in the crossfire between the major powers of the United States and China. The Veldhoven high-tech giant may soon not even be allowed to send parts for repairs to China as part of new restrictions from the United States. ASML was already not allowed to supply chip machines to China.
Competition
The threat in the Global Times that China could completely stop importing ASML machines is therefore exaggerated, Ritmeester thinks. “The official statement from the Chinese government was also a lot milder. I think that if China does something, it is more likely to hit the Dutch economy differently, for example by stopping the export of certain products. In Japan, China did that earlier by restricting certain rare earth metals”, says Ritmeester
Injury
But what if China does succeed in mastering lithography? “That would significantly harm ASML, Europe’s most important high-tech company,” says Ritmeester. “But there is no reason to assume that they are that far along. China is simply lagging far behind in the field of lithography. On the other hand, the Chinese have shown that you can also make advanced chips in other ways if you are inventive and work intensively on it; they do have that capacity in China”.
Independent
Even without American restrictions, Chinese companies would strive to become independent of the West and ASML, Ritmeester believes. “China has had these ambitions for a long time. And it is the struggle for independence that is also central to the current tensions. Artificial intelligence will only become more important in the coming 20-30 years. And countries do not want to be dependent on each other in the development of this”.
“Right now, the world is one big market and the supply chain is incredibly complicated and international,” says Ritmeester. “In the coming decades, this could change due to increasing trade conflicts and protectionism. This will also have consequences for the level of innovation because you have to stay within certain power blocs due to the fragmented market. Although no one will become completely self-sufficient; that will not work”.
Europe
“With that in mind, ASML needs to become much more of a European story,” Ritmeester agrees with Van der Lugt. “Now, as the Netherlands, you are more or less forced to follow the policy of the United States. But you could also say that you do want to export some machines, or some parts, to China. It wouldn’t be bad for the US either if there was a united power bloc with the EU that showed itself to be a full-fledged discussion partner”.
Source: Studio040
Translated by: Seetha
