How many inhabitants will eventually become infected or may even die from COVID-19, the Corona virus? That is a key question repeatedly asked these days. Prof. Edwin van den Heuvel, mathematician at Eindhoven University of Technology places his forecasts on the internet.
Radio4Brainport.org reporter Jean-Paul Linnartz was eager to ask him how to interpret these numbers, in a skype podcast.
By applying mathematical techniques that were first used by the Belgian mathematician Verhulst in 1845, to worldwide corona data, Prof. van den Heuvel and his team were able to calculate the expected number of new infections and deaths from the virus for the near future. For the four countries with the highest number of infections – China, South Korea, Italy and Iran – they can give a forecast for three days in advance, and an estimation for the maximum number of infections. In the short term, this will also be possible for other countries, such as the Netherlands and the US. A TU/e news page provides an update of their latest predictions.
Source: TU Eindhoven and Radio 4 Brainport.